What is SugarCaneModel?

SugarCaneModel is a tool for modelling the technical and economic aspects of the creation of useful products from sugar cane. There are three key features of SugarCaneModel: (a) it is holistic, (b) it combines technical and economic factors, and (c) it accounts for uncertainty.

(a) SugarCaneModel is holistic in that it allows analysis of complete systems in a single model, capturing all significant interdependencies and ensuring a consistent approach to modelling widely varying projects and scenarios. It looks at the "big picture" rather than any aspect or process in isolation.

(b) SugarCaneModel combines technical and economic factors into a single model, ensuring that decisions can be made after considering all aspects on an equal footing.

(c) SugarCaneModel accounts for uncertainty via the application of Monte Carlo simulation methods. Most traditional models are static, with fixed input values resulting in fixed output values. Very few inputs to a model are actually known with 100% confidence, and therefore the results from a static model reflect no known reality. In SugarCaneModel inputs can be defined as ranges using probability distributions, and Monte Carlo simulation can be performed to show the range of outcomes and how likely they are to occur.

What can it be used for?

SugarCaneModel is primarily intended as a tool for decision-making; this is the guiding principle behind its creation and continued development. It can provide rigorous analysis to assist in making any significant decision involving sugar cane or its products. The decision could be technical, such as choosing between technologies or processes; economic, such as deciding whether to invest; or both. See the case study and applications pages for examples. It can also be used for front-end process design, such as equipment sizing.

The ultimate aim for SugarCaneModel is to represent all commercially viable processes and products originating from sugar cane. Its present scope (illustrated here) extends from the cane plantation to the following products:

  • Raw sugar
  • Refined sugar (granulated)
  • Refined sugar (liquid)
  • Soft brown sugar & syrup
  • Molasses
  • Ethanol
  • Electricity
  • Biogas

Who created it?

SugarCaneModel was created by Jack Fisher. Jack is a chartered chemical engineer with 20 years experience working for Texaco, Alfa Laval, British Nuclear Group and Tate & Lyle. Jack's most recent position was as Innovation Manager for the Research & Technology division at American Sugar Refining.

Why was it created?

Sugar cane is one of the most important crops on the planet. It can be processed into a myriad of diverse products, using many different processes and technologies. The cane sugar industry is well established, but its level of sophistication varies widely. The equipment and methods used to process sugar cane can date back half a century or more. Change can be reactive, with decisions made without rigorous analysis or an acknowledgement of a lack of certainty in assumptions.

The rate of change in external factors is in the future likely to exceed that of the past. Energy costs are likely to rise. Fresh water will become scarcer. Labour will become more expensive. The price of oil, and of petroleum-based products, will rise. Biofuels and bioplastics, and potentially whole biorefineries, will become more viable. Populations will grow, driving up consumption and competition for land. Consumers will mature and demand healthier and greener products. Environmental legislation will become more onerous. Of course these are all assumptions. Nothing is certain.

What is certain, however, is that every one of these, and other drivers, will affect the cane sugar industry in some way. They will represent both risks and opportunities, and responses will be required. Decisions will have to be made, and to assist the decision-makers, rigorous analysis will be needed, together with a thorough understanding of uncertainty.  This is why SugarCaneModel was created - to provide a technical and economic model of the cane sugar industry, a model that takes into account uncertainty and risk, and which can be used as a tool for analysis.

Contact

SugarCaneModel is available for bespoke modelling of any application. For all enquiries please contact [email protected].